AI Token Unlock Tsunami: $2.8B Set to Flood Market, Threatening Valuations

For the last year, one of the crypto market’s most hotly discussed themes has been artificial intelligence (AI). Yet, while this has been a theme, it’s long been a theme for a good reason: riding a wave of investor enthusiasm, AI-related tokens in the crypto market have enjoyed much excitement and seen much growth in recent months and not just as a result of recent earnings calls. The AI theme has undoubtedly brought interest and innovation to web3, yet the stunning hype around AI-related tokens might soon be tested by a wave of supply that could push down prices and restructure faith in price targets.As per an in-depth study by Tokenomist, several leading AI and AI-agent crypto projects are gearing up for major token emissions in the next few months. These emissions—where tokens that have been locked up are set free into the market—could significantly dilute any current token holders and possibly push prices down if the market demand does not equal the new supply.Short-Term Unlocks Signal Market Volatility AheadIn the next six months, the market is anticipated to receive a new token supply worth over $1.5 billion from the AI token sector. Worldcoin (WLD) tops the list of impacted tokens, unlocking a stunning $929.98 worth of new tokens—73.94% more than its current circulating supply. As this and other token unlocks (see below) proceed, the price effect on the unlocked tokens and their related ecosystems will depend on how well the market can absorb the new supply.Following closely is GRASS, set to free $265.95 million worth of tokens in the same timeframe, representing 67.04% of its circulating supply. This wave is expected to peak around October 2025, making it one of the more time-sensitive events for investors to monitor.Tokens like SPEC, AI, and DEAI are receiving special notice for their extremely high dilution ratios. SPEC, in particular, is set for an incredible 153.95% increase in the supply over the next six months. That number suggests the circulating supply could nearly double. Contextually, that would mean for every token currently in circulation, 1.5 new tokens would be introduced. This would apply strong sell-side pressure unless demand pulls in the other direction.In the same way, AI—even though it has a lower unlock value of $16.34 million—is viewed as a high-risk associated with its limited circulating float and quick unlock speed. Even a minimal amount of selling, with an expected 84.04% increase in just six months, could lead to some pretty significant drops in price.Other tokens—like IO, ATH, and COOKIE—are also set for considerable supply inflations, with unlock percentages nearing 44% to 50% in the short term. While not quite as aggressive as SPEC or DEAI, these unlocks still mean significant dilution for investors holding these tokens in the mid term.Long-Term Dilution May Reshape Sector ValuationsWhen we look at the next 12 months, the situation in the AI sector becomes even more pronounced, with nearly $2.8 billion worth of unlocked tokens on the cusp of being added to the current supply. Once again, WLD is the standout here by absolute value, with a jaw-dropping $1.84 billion in projected token unlocks over the same period—this represents a 146.68% increase over its current circulating supply.SPEC, however, continues to surprise people the most because of its seemingly insane dilution ratio. With a full-year unlock of $105.34 million, its supply could grow by as much as 259.39% to effectively triple in size. This aggressive unlock schedule will likely require any combination of product traction and partnerships to justify the valuation of its token in the face of—as noted above—strong dilution.AI shares the same trend (161.67% increase), while DEAI (244.31%) and IO (111.61%) are clearly moving in the right direction (at least in terms of share price) and may be benefiting from the AI buzz. But are any of these likely to yield real, investable growth any time soon? For now, there doesn’t seem to be a compelling case for that.AI & AI Agent Token Unlocks – $2.8B in Supply Hits the Market Soon While AI remains one of the strongest narratives, upcoming supply emissions could reshape valuations across the sectorWe analyzed which AI tokens face the largest emissions relative to circulating supply and... pic.twitter.com/VN1tWpU6AC— Tokenomist (prev. TokenUnlocks) (@Tokenomist_ai) May 6, 2025In the meantime, ATH and COOKIE are projected to maintain consistent unlocks throughout the year. They will see increases in circulating supply of 85.58% and 69.76%, respectively. These supply increases are less aggressive than what we see with STG, but they still challenge valuations. And they do so in the context of pretty anemic user growth and a lack of utility.AI Narrative Faces Its First Major TestAlthough AI is one of crypto’s most thrilling and potentially rewarding frontiers, the huge number of tokens that are about to be unlocked is undoubtedly a challenge. In a market where both liquidity and investor sentiment can shift in an instant, how will the balance between narrative-driven excitement and the tokenomics of unlocked supply hold up?Initiatives with sound underpinnings, increasing acceptance, and well-built ecosystems may survive the storm of dilution. But for others—especially those with low float and high unlock velocity—a grueling reset of their already thin valuations may be just around the bend.It would be prudent for investors in the AI crypto space to keep a close watch on when tokens become available and to adjust their risk levels if necessary. In crypto, as in all things financial, when you get in and how many there are to buy are the key.Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news!