Analysis: BTC Price Trend to Experience Normalized Short-Term Bull-Bear Cycle, Investor Sentiment Trend Today Returns to Positive

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/09/12 14:52:59

BlockBeats News, September 12th, On-chain data analyst Murphy stated in a post that, according to Glassnode's Investor Sentiment Confidence Index, based on historical data, even if today's investor confidence index has returned from the hesitation zone to the positive zone, it does not necessarily mean that BTC will definitely form a new upward trend. Similar to July 2023 and June 2024, the rebound's limit was always near the previous high. The current market is highly confusing. Although it has been proven afterwards that even buying at the peak and holding steadfastly can benefit from the subsequent increase, only a few investors can hold their positions firmly.

Whenever Glassnode's Investor Sentiment Confidence Index shifts from positive to hesitant, it serves as a reminder that market confidence is reversing, indicating that the trend may be coming to an end. Whether BTC will continue to follow the four-year cycle in the future is unknown to all market participants, including institutions. Short-term bullish and bearish phases may become the norm for measuring BTC's future trends. The method of using a -70% price drop or a several-fold price increase to describe the bullish and bearish cycles will become ineffective.

1. On-chain Volume: $34.0M USD inflow to Hyperliquid today; $29.3M USD outflow from Arbitrum 2. Biggest Gainers and Losers: $FAI, $ARC 3. Top News: Today, the crypto market rebounded against the trend, with a macro hedge whale holding long positions in gold and silver and shorting crypto, resulting in a $500k USD loss for the day

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