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Analysis: If we use past cycles to predict this bull run, we should focus on the accelerated upward trend between Q3 of this year and Q1 of next year.
BlockBeats News, August 8th, regarding the question of "At which stage of the cycle is the crypto market currently in," CoinDesk Data's Diwan pointed out that historically, Bitcoin's most significant price appreciation occurred between the 500th and 720th days after the halving. Diwan mentioned that in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Bitcoin peaked within this window. "If this pattern repeats, then we should pay attention to a possible accelerated rise between the third quarter of 2025 and the beginning of the first quarter of 2026. Compared to the post-halving periods, the price trend of this cycle has been notably subdued."
Bitwise Asset Management's Hougan, on the other hand, stated that the four-year cycle has ended, but to formally declare its death, Bitcoin would need to perform well in 2026, which he expects to happen. In a comment via email, Hougan said, "I don't think we have eliminated volatility, but I think, first, the forces that historically drove the four-year cycle are weaker than they used to be, and second, there are some other very powerful forces developing on different timelines that I think are going to overwhelm the trend of our four-year cycle."
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