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Analyst: Options Market Data Shows ETH Has Potential to Rise to $4400
BlockBeats News, August 9th, Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that a hidden signal in the derivatives market indicates that Ethereum (ETH) may experience an intensified uptrend, driving its price quickly to $4400.
This key indicator is the net Gamma exposure of market makers in the Deribit Ethereum options market. Gamma is a crucial metric for options traders, measuring how the options' Delta (i.e., their sensitivity to the underlying asset's price changes) varies with market fluctuations.
When market makers are in a negative Gamma state, they are forced to buy the underlying asset on price increases and sell on price decreases, which usually amplifies market one-sided movements. Market makers provide liquidity to the order book, profit from the bid-ask spread, and strive to maintain a price-neutral net exposure.
According to data provider Amberdata, a significant negative Gamma accumulation has been observed in the $4000 to $4400 strike price range. As Ethereum breaks above $4000, market makers may buy Ethereum for hedging, thereby forming a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop that drives the price rapidly to $4400. At this price level, the Gamma dynamic will turn positive, forcing market makers to take reverse actions to suppress price volatility.
Greg Magadini, Derivatives Director at Amberdata, stated: "If the market momentum is strong enough to break through $4000, we will see market makers becoming net buyers of Ethereum at higher levels as well, potentially causing a rapid price increase to $4400, which is the next significant Gamma inventory level." This makes $4400 a reasonable target for the current uptrend.
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