Bitcoin (BTC) Reversal To $60K? $74K Gap and Bearish Cues Raise Red Flags

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold above $105,000 this week despite strong momentum earlier in May. After tapping $105,706 on May 13, the price retraced sharply and now trades near $103,200, marking a rejection from key resistance. The rejection comes after BTC posted two strong weeks of gains, largely driven by short squeezes and improved risk sentiment. However, the rally appears to be losing steam just below critical psychological levels. The broader crypto market reflects this cooling. Ethereum (ETH) trades near $2,552, while Solana (SOL) hovers around $169. BNB has slipped to $652, and XRP has fallen to $2.47. Most large-cap assets are in mild decline, suggesting a broader pause in bullish momentum. Macroeconomic pressure is also returning. Traders are now watching U.S. inflation data expected later this week, which could reset expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. While a temporary easing of U.S.–China tariffs last week supported risk assets, the relief proved short-lived as equities and crypto failed to sustain upward momentum. BTC’s inability to hold $105,000, coupled with fading macro tailwinds, paints a cautious picture in the short term. Momentum traders now face a key question — whether BTC can reclaim its highs or if distribution is already underway. Bitcoin Price Could Face Trouble Ahead Analysts across several platforms highlighted rising downside risk for Bitcoin, despite its short-term breakout above $100,000. The predictions rely on both on-chain and technical cues. A trader posted a chart on Tradingview, which outlined a clear Elliott Wave structure pointing to a final push toward $122,000 before a sharp correction to $60,000 in 2026. The move fits within a rising wedge, with Bitcoin currently in Wave 3 of the final leg. Moreover, Amr Taha, an analyst on CryptoQuant, shared another warning, with this one coming from Binance liquidation data. Bitcoin has registered two liquidation spikes above $300 million within seven days. Both were short liquidations, with the latest occurring near $105,000. These are not organic rallies. Instead, they were forced buy-ins triggered by margin calls on short positions. When crypto exchanges auto-close shorts, they generate aggressive upside moves, but the fuel is finite. Price briefly pierced $105K before retracing, confirming that reactive buying, not spot demand, drove the move. The second signal involves on-chain activity from wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. On May 13, this cohort moved from accumulation to distribution, shedding over 40,000 BTC. The dump was their first net negative trend since April 2024. This group tends to act early, often distributing into strength before broader sentiment shifts. Their decision to exit while the Bitcoin price rallied suggests tactical selling into retail-driven euphoria. This cohort is known for accurately timing cycle mid-tops and late-stage rallies. The third signal is technical. A weekly fair value gap between $73,624 and $74,420 remains unfilled. This inefficiency formed during a vertical move in early April and has not been retested. Such gaps often attract price later in the cycle, especially if the trend exhausts. With BTC over 28% above the zone, a return would imply a deep correction, but it remains a relevant magnet. Together, these signals reflect distribution, not strength. Without fresh inflows or a decisive breakout above $105K, the next major move could favor downside reversion. Bulls’ Last Hope Might Take Some Time To Realize The BTC USD pair has formed a bullish technical setup called the ascending triangle. A horizontal resistance line and rising support trendline help characterize the pattern. This structure suggests that buyers are gradually gaining control, compressing price against a defined ceiling. Traders measure the projected price target for this pattern by first calculating the vertical height between the base of the triangle and the horizontal resistance. Then, they project the distance upward from the breakout point. Per this method, Bitcoin price could rally nearly 39% to reach the pattern’s theoretical price target near $142,450. However, confirmation remains absent. BTC must post a clean breakout above the horizontal resistance to validate this setup. Until then, the risk of rejection lingers. A failed breakout attempt could push BTC back toward the ascending trendline support near the $90,000 zone, invalidating short-term bullish momentum. Adding caution to the outlook, the volume trend is declining, a condition that often precedes false breakouts. Without rising volume to back a breakout move, the market risks slipping into a fakeout—where price breaks above resistance temporarily but lacks conviction to sustain the rally. Institutional sentiment is also showing signs of exhaustion. CoinShares’ latest digital asset fund flows report noted $867 million in BTC inflows, sharply lower than the previous week’s $1.84 billion, signaling fading demand. Complementing this, Coinglass data shows a visible drop in net spot ETF inflows since April, even as BTC tests historic highs. Still, a strong and sustained breakout would override all bearish expectations, including distribution and ETF slowdown concerns.