Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Supply Hits a Decade Low – Could An Explosive Rally Be On the Horizon?

By: crypto insight|2025/12/10 15:30:08
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Key Takeaways

  • Historical Low in Circulating Supply: Ethereum’s circulating supply on exchanges has dropped to its lowest point in a decade, signaling potential for a significant market shift.
  • Scarcity and Market Dynamics: The diminishing availability of Ethereum due to factors such as staking and private holdings is creating tight supply conditions amid growing demand.
  • Potential Price Surge: With momentum indicators and historic patterns favoring a bullish trend, Ethereum might experience a major rally, potentially targeting $10,000.
  • Institutional and Regulatory Influence: Institutional investment and a shift towards favorable crypto regulations could further fuel Ethereum’s ascent in the crypto market.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-10 07:10:39

The world of cryptocurrency is abuzz with discussions surrounding Ethereum’s latest market developments. In a remarkable turn of events, the supply of Ethereum circulating through centralized exchanges has plummeted to its lowest level in ten years. This scarce availability, coupled with increasing institutional interest, paints a potentially explosive future for Ethereum prices.

The Scarcity Phenomenon: Ethereum’s Supply Boils Down

Within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies, the principle of scarcity often serves as a catalyst for significant market changes. Ethereum is currently experiencing such a scenario. For the first time since its inception in 2015, the volume of Ethereum held in centralized exchanges has dipped to a mere 8.7% of its total circulating supply. This shift is not merely a footnote in financial reports; it represents a strategic realignment of Ethereum holdings across the market.

The reduction in Ethereum availability can be attributed to various channels funneling liquidity away from exchanges. Staking platforms, private wallets, and digital asset treasuries have siphoned substantial amounts of Ethereum, securing these assets away from daily trade cycles. This redistribution aligns with an escalating embrace of decentralized finance (DeFi) and newer Ethereum frameworks like layer-2 solutions.

Moreover, the scarcity in supply is compounded by the introduction of U.S. Traditional Financial (TradFi) products such as ETFs, garnering a new wave of institutional-grade interest. The strategic accumulation by long-term holders has tightened the available Ethereum, and the market is bracing for the ramifications of this supply contraction.

Charting the Path Forward: Could Prices Surge?

As the conditions for a supply shock set in, Ethereum’s price is poised for possible dramatic movements. Traders and analysts are keenly observing market patterns for signs of an imminent breakout. The current market price of Ethereum has established a local floor at $2,750, with technical indicators supporting a bullish formation—that of a head and shoulders pattern on its price charts.

Momentum indicators, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have crossed pivotal levels, indicating potential upsides. When the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues widening its gap above the signal line, it typically confirms a robust upward trend. These technical assurances suggest a rally could culminate in Ethereum reclaiming its price neckline around $5,500, with a projection that the price could swell 60% and rediscover past peaks.

In scenarios of mature bull markets, scarcity plays an even larger role. With fewer tokens available, the effects of mainstream adoption, from both regulatory and community involvement, may propel prices upwards by 200%, potentially reaching $10,000.

Pro-Crypto Regulation and Technological Evolution

The path towards Ethereum’s potential surge is further emboldened by a shift towards pro-crypto regulation, particularly in technologically forward regions. The transition to Web3, an innovative decentralization of online services, is prompting major transformations in how regulations are approached globally.

Projects like SUBBD, an AI-driven content platform, exemplify this evolution. They tap into growing digital economies, illustrating the financial and cultural benefits of decentralized technology platforms. By empowering content creators and their audiences, projects like these bolster Ethereum’s ecosystem, translating utility into tangible market value.

Institutional Participation: The Game Changer?

The role of institutional investors cannot be overstated in this unfolding narrative. Large-scale investors bring significant capital, confidence, and volume to fledgling markets, often validating, and thereby accelerating, broader financial trends. Ethereum’s entrance into mainstream indices and TradFi products has deepened its integration into institutional portfolios, potentially setting the stage for an unfolding bull market distinct from previous cycles.

This growing institutional presence introduces a new investment dynamic—one characterized by strategic buying and holding rather than short-term speculative trading. Consequently, this tilts the balance to a more stable, upward trajectory for Ethereum’s price as demand strengthens against a backdrop of limited supply.

Conclusion: A Look to the Future

Ethereum’s market is currently at a pivotal juncture—characterized by historical lows in supply, regulatory shifts, and institutional traction. With these factors converging, the stage is set for Ethereum to potentially blaze new trails in the coming months and years.

To observers and participants alike, the opportunity poised by Ethereum’s current state is as exhilarating as it is complex. Whether as an investment prospect or a technological revolution, Ethereum serves as a testament to the evolving narrative of digital currencies in today’s fiscal environment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is causing the scarcity of Ethereum?

The scarcity of Ethereum is caused by multiple factors, including increased adoption of staking, the uptake of Ethereum by private wallets and digital asset treasuries, and the evaporation of exchange liquidity. With the development of layer-2 solutions and institutional buying through TradFi products like ETFs, more Ethereum is held outside traditional exchange ecosystems.

How will Ethereum’s price be affected by its low circulating supply?

Ethereum’s low circulating supply on exchanges creates conditions that may lead to a supply shock. As demand for Ethereum rises amidst constrained supply, market prices could experience significant upward momentum, characterized by potential parabolic growth if technical indicators align favorably with market behavior.

Are we entering a new phase of regulatory changes favoring cryptocurrencies?

Yes, there is a discernible trend toward more favorable cryptocurrency regulation globally. This progression is largely driven by the shift to decentralized and blockchain technologies encapsulated within Web3. Such regulation can encourage mainstream adoption and increase investor confidence, further solidifying Ethereum’s market position.

How do institutional investors impact Ethereum’s market dynamics?

Institutional investors significantly influence Ethereum’s market dynamics by underpinning it with greater capital allocations and long-term investment strategies. Their participation introduces a more consistent demand, reduces market volatility, and lends credibility, encouraging other investors to enter the market.

Could Ethereum surpass its all-time high of $5,500 and reach $10,000?

Based on current market trends and technical analyses, Ethereum holds the potential to surpass previous highs. Given the reduced circulating supply, increased institutional interest, positive regulatory outlook, and bullish market indicators, Ethereum could indeed escalate its price, possibly reaching or even exceeding the $10,000 mark in the future.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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