Institutional Outlook on US September Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Employment Market Weak Trend Likely to Continue, But Collapse Talk Premature
BlockBeats News, November 20th, the first non-farm payroll report after the shutdown will be released tonight, and the views of various institutions are as follows:
Rockefeller: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000, indicating that the employment market remains stable. Previously released labor data has shown a clear weakening trend;
Indeed Hiring Lab: In comparison to previous reports, it is not believed that there will be significant changes in the September non-farm employment report, and the current weak state of the labor market will continue;
Pantheon Macroeconomics: Any data that seems unsatisfactory at the moment may continue to ferment due to a six-week data vacuum period, and the negative impact of non-farm data may be amplified;
Reuters Survey: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000. Economists believe that the data in August was suppressed by seasonal abnormal factors, and it may be revised upwards based on historical trends;
Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and it is widely expected that this trend will continue. The labor market will hover at the bottom for a while but will not fall into a recession;
Nationwide: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 40,000 to 50,000, further confirming that the summer weakness in the job market has continued into the fall, with companies maintaining a stance of not hiring or firing;
Nomura Credit: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 55,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%. The labor market seems to be cooling down but has not collapsed, still exhibiting a situation of "low hiring, low firing";
Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected that the non-farm employment data from September to November will be "very weak", seasonal hiring may be very weak, and layoffs will be unusually high. This should be enough to convince the Fed's moderates to lean towards the rate-cut camp;
Goldman Sachs: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 80,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%. The risk lies in the unannounced October data, with an expected decrease of 50,000 in October non-farm employment;
Union Bank: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by about 40,000, and the market reaction may be smaller than usual because more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions;
RSM Consulting: The September data along with revisions for July and August will show that the employment outlook is slightly better than generally expected, but far from impressive. The labor market is still struggling to support itself, and so is the overall U.S. economy.
(Note: The market consensus expectation is that U.S. non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%.) (Jin10)
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