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Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle is expected to peak in 2026, and cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.
BlockBeats News, December 11th, Former Goldman Sachs Executive, author of "The Global Macro Investor," and Co-Founder & CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, stated at the Solana Breakpoint Conference:
"The declining labor force participation rate implies a reduction in the working-age population. And population structure is key to driving debt. As population growth continues to decline, this means that the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, which is the crux of the problem.
We have to face the global debt problem, and currency depreciation has always been a way to solve (or delay) this problem. We have already begun to see signs that the Fed has to reconsider its balance sheet and start thinking about how to 'monetize' all this debt. It is expected that in the next 12 months, we will need to print around $80 trillion through liquidity injections.
I know many people may think that the crypto cycle has already ended and believe that the 'good days are over.' But in fact, what drives it all is cyclicality, not the Bitcoin halving cycle, but the debt maturity cycle.
So, I believe that it is not a 4-year cycle now, but a 5.4-year cycle. In a 5.4-year cycle, we have now passed the trough of the cycle, and the next step is the upswing phase. The cycle should peak at the end of 2026, not 2025. This is a breakthrough insight for us as global macro investors: understanding that cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.
Furthermore, the altcoin/Bitcoin cross-rate is being driven by the business cycle, and the business cycle seems to be bottoming out, not peaking."
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