Wintermute: If Bitcoin falls below $75,000, it may quickly drop to the $70,000 range
Wintermute released a market outlook indicating that the cryptocurrency market has come under significant pressure this week due to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S. and a reversal in interest rate expectations. Bitcoin failed to break through the 200-day moving average when it first encountered a major macro shock, showing that the previous rally was driven more by short covering rather than sustained inflows of new capital.
The market environment has clearly changed, with U.S. CPI growth accelerating, core inflation exceeding expectations, and real wages turning negative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.58%, while a new Fed chair with a more hawkish stance will take office in three weeks. The market's pricing of the Fed's policy path has also changed rapidly, shifting from betting on rate cuts to concerns about further rate hikes within just five trading days.
Cross-asset performance also reflects this change: Brent crude oil rose 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 5.7% and 10.2%, respectively. Capital is flowing into assets that drive inflation, while cryptocurrencies have performed even weaker than the stock market during the downturn, a relative weakness that is considered a cause for concern.
Despite the long-term structural positives still in place, including Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remaining at multi-year lows, long-term holders continuing to accumulate, and the advancement of the U.S. crypto regulatory bill "CLARITY," institutional capital is more inclined to take profits on rebounds in the short term rather than continue to increase positions. The market is currently focused on the $76,000 to $78,000 range for Bitcoin; if it can hold this position after Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, market confidence may recover. However, if it falls below $75,000, along with a decline in funding rates and continued outflows from ETFs, it could quickly drop to the $70,000 range.
You may also like

Hyperliquid has stirred up Wall Street, with regulations uncertain and market makers fleeing first?

When Hyperliquid takes away Solana's "internet capital market" script

Base native leveraged prediction market OmenX officially launches on the mainnet
WEEX Labs Co-Hosts ETHMilan 26 Openguin Party: Rooftop AI Trading Calling

Best Crypto Staking Platforms 2026: Is XRP Staking Really Worth It?

Circle: From Issuance to Infrastructure

Capital Markets: How will independent agents obtain financing?

Morning News | AEON completes $8 million Pre-Seed round financing led by YZi Labs; Goldman Sachs liquidates XRP and Solana ETF holdings in Q1; Strategy increased its holdings by 24,869 BTC last week

Cross-border payment giant Wise lands on Nasdaq

a16z Crypto: How should crypto entrepreneurs understand the CLARITY Act?

Hyperliquid has been sued by two major traditional exchanges

Dialogue with Lead Bank Founder Jackie: American Banks Re-embrace Crypto

Vitalik: What we need to do is not to fight against AI, but to create a sanctuary

Morning News | VanEck and Grayscale submitted BNB ETF amendments on the same day; BlackRock discusses investing billions of dollars in SpaceX's IPO; Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker information again

Crypto ETF Weekly | Last week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was $995 million; the net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States was $255 million

This Week's News Preview | The Federal Reserve Releases the Last FOMC Minutes of the "Powell Era"

The ambition of "one account trading global assets": How does CoinUp.io break down asset barriers to become an industry dark horse?



