Análisis: Factores clave impulsan el primer entorno de liquidez neta positiva en el mercado desde 2022

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/12/04 12:15:56
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BlockBeats News, 4 de diciembre, la firma de investigación de mercado de criptomonedas Delphi Digital publicó en redes sociales que la trayectoria de la tasa de interés del Fed para el próximo año es la más clara en años. Se espera un recorte de 25 puntos básicos en diciembre de 2025, llevando la tasa de fondos federales a alrededor del 3,5%-3,75%. La curva a plazo prevé al menos tres recortes de tasas más en 2026 y, si el camino se mantiene, las tasas caerán a alrededor del 3% para fin de año.

Sin embargo, los recortes de tasas son solo parte de la historia. El ajuste cuantitativo (QT) finalizó el 1 de diciembre. La Cuenta General del Tesoro (TGA) planea reducir gradualmente el saldo en lugar de reabastecerlo. Los Acuerdos de Recompra Inversa (RRP) a un día han sido totalmente absorbidos. Estos factores han creado juntos el primer entorno de liquidez neta positiva desde principios de 2022.

La Tasa de Financiamiento a un Día Garantizada (SOFR) y la Tasa de Fondos Federales han retrocedido al extremo superior del rango del 3%. Las tasas reales también han retrocedido desde su pico en 2023-2024. Sin embargo, no ha habido un colapso, sino una desaceleración controlada, lo que indica un cambio de política deliberado en lugar de un giro repentino.

2026 será un año en el que la política pasará de vientos en contra a vientos a favor moderados. Este entorno favorece a los activos de larga duración, acciones de gran capitalización, oro y activos digitales respaldados por una demanda estructural.

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